• New Polls


    VA-02
    MI-07
    AK-AL

  • New Ads


    9/24/08
    Bobby Bright, "Setting the Record Straight"
    David Boswell, "Round Here"
    AShwin Madia (Patriot Majority), "Political Animal"
    John Boccierri, "Fighting for America"
    Tim Mahoney, "Fights for Us"
    Bill Foster, "Get Things Done"
    Jason Altmire, "Delivering for Western Pennsylvania"
    Marilyn Musgrave, "Betsy Markey's Scandals"
    Dennis Shulman, "Scott Garrett's Shrub Farm"

    9/23/08
    Debbie Halvorson, "Every American"
    Debbie Halvorson (DCCC), "Dumping on the Middle Class"
    Alice Kryzan (DCCC), "A Record We Can't Afford"
    Steve Stivers, "Monkey Business"
    Mary Jo Kilroy , "On Time and Under Budget"
    Chris Carney (DCCC), "Mistakes Happen"
    Tom Feeney, "Abramoff Apology"
    Ethan Berkowitz (Def. Wildlife), "Don Young May Think It's Funny"
    John Gard (DCCC), "More of the Same"
    Gerry Connolly (DCCC), "Troubling"
    John Boccierri (DCCC), "Kirk Schuring: Shows Up for Himself, Not for Us"
    Dina Titus, "The Party is Over"
    Harry Teague (DCCC), "What's Good for Ed is Bad for New Mexico"
    Martin Heinrich (DCCC), "Darren White: Too Much Like Bush"
    John Adler (DCCC), "Chris Myers: Way Out of Touch with New Jersey"
    Frank Kratovil(DCCC), "Andy Harris: Standing Alone Against Healthcare -- Not For Us"
    Don Cazayoux(DCCC), "Bill Cassidy: Risky Social Security Scheme"
    Bobby Bright (DCCC), "Jay Love: He Won't Stand Up for Us"
    Gabrielle Giffords (DCCC), "Tim Bee: Loves George Bush -- Out For Himself"
    David Boswell(DCCC), "A Fighter. For Kentucky"
    Jim Himes (DCCC), "Chris Shays: "Our Economy Is Fundamentally Strong""
    Tim Mahoney (DCCC), "Tom Rooney: Not Listening to Florida's Middle Class"

    9/22/08
    Jay Love, "Teams Matter"
    John Shadegg, "John Shadegg"
    Harry Mitchell, "Ruben"
    Tom McClintock, "Charlie Was There"
    Jerry McNerny, "Energy"
    Tim Mahoney, "Flag Ceremony"
    Dan Seals (DCCC), "Illinois Needs a Change"
    Bill Cassidy, "Rain"
    John Kline, "Character, Integrity"
    Kay Barnes, "Squeeze"
    Jeb Bradley, "Vacation"
    Linda Stender, "Boys"
    Linda Stender, "Child"
    Jill Derby, "Four Generations"
    Jon Porter, "Whose Side is She On?"
    Dan Maffei, "Gas Tank"
    Alice Kryzan, "Priorities"
    Chris Lee, "American Made Energy"

    9/20/08
    Wayne Parker, "Values"
    Charlie Brown, "Jan Brown"
    Frank Kratovil, "Reach"
    Andy Harris, "Service"
    Dan Maffei (DCCC), "Sweetland Has it Backwards"
    Halvorson (DCCC), "Ozinga: Dumping on the Middle Class"
    Gabrielle Giffords, "Honea"
    Gabrielle Giffords, "Tough"
    Dean Heller, "Liberal Activist"
    Betsy Markey (Patriot Majority), "Truth About Musgrave"
    Ashwin Madia (DCCC), "Paulsen: Got to Go"
    Mark Schauer (DCCC), "Walberg: If You Use It He Wants a 23% Tax"
    Kathy Dahlkemper (DCCC), "Dahlkemper: The Change We Need"
    Vic Wulsin, "Schmidt: Reckless Disregard for the Truth"

    9/19/08
    Ed Tinsley, "Humble Beginnings"
    Mike Erickson, "Tax Hiker"
    Mike Erickson, "Afford"
    John Gard, "Drilling"

    9/18/08
    Don Cazayoux, "Storm Has Passed"
    Peter Roskam, "Domestic Energy"
    Patrick Murphy,"Comes From"

    9/17/08
    Mary Jo Kilroy,"Roots"
    Sam Bennett,"Work"
    Sam Bennett,"What Dent Seems to Want"
    Charlie Dent,"Broken Promises"

    9/16/08
    Joe Knollenberg, "Valerie"
    Joe Knollenberg, "Survivor"
    Gary Peters (DCCC), "Foot Soldier for George Bush"
    Carol Shea-Porter (DCCC), "Everything that's Wrong with Washington"
    Steve Driehaus (DCCC), "Didn't Get the Memo"
    Chris Carney, "America's Best"
    Mary Jo Kilroy (Patriot Majority), "Trickle"
    Bob Lord, "Duty"
    Dan Seals, "Just Say No"
    Martin Heinrich, "Holding Back"
    Darren White, "Service"
    Paul Kanjorski, "Barletta is Scary"
    Dina Titus, "Difference"

  • Latest News

    Democrats Fare Well in Roll Call Polls (sub. req'd)

    "Polls are snapshots, but they also tell a story. And if the results of eight polls can be considered a microcosm of the 60 to 75 competitive House races this fall, then Democrats — two months out from Election Day, anyway — seem to be in a good position to make gains. . . .

    The polls also found that voters are concerned about the economy above all other issues; nothing else was even close. They also found that, despite the Republicans’ rhetoric about the necessity of drilling for more oil, most voters prefer a Congressional candidate who advocates a variety of alternative sources of energy." - [Roll Call]


    Democrats Poised to Take NM-1? (sub. req'd)

    "To House Democrats, New Mexico’s 1st district has been like Moby Dick to Ahab. Democrats have spent 40 years trying to wrest the Albuquerque-based seat — a perpetual swing district on the presidential level — from the Republicans’ hands.

    But a new poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call suggests that 2008 may finally be the Democrats’ year. In the race to replace retiring Rep. Heather Wilson (R), former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich (D) led Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R), 51 percent to 46 percent. . . .

    White and Republicans have one apparent political trend to worry about: According to the poll, the 1st district is no longer a swing district in the White House election." - [Roll Call]


    Republicans Losing Alaska?

    "The relentless tattoo of scandal -- coupled with the drag of presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain's tepid local support and a Democratic field offering a new generation of political leadership -- threatens a Republican stranglehold on Alaska politics that dates to the oil boom of the 1970s." - [Wash Post]


    Goode has huge lead
    Perriello (D): 30
    Goode (R): 64

    "[Perriello] should be able to close the gap some once he spends his considerable resources on the race, but this looks to be an extremely tough hill to climb." - [SSP]


    Dreier Vulnerable?
    Warner (D): 37
    Dreier (R): 49

    "This is an R+4 district that takes in the affluent parts of the San Gabriel Valley between Los Angeles and San Bernardino; it's one of the few districts in California that qualifies as a swing district, and one where Dreier hasn't broken out of the mid-50s in the last few elections despite drawing third-tier opposition." - [SSP]

House Race Tracker

Posted on September 26, 2008 by jonathangodfrey


District/ PVI Candidate (Party-Inc.)
Cash on Hand
TV Ads
Indep.
Expend.:		 Sponsor (Party)
Amount
Purpose, Points (Mult. Mkts)
Date
 Pollster (Sponsor)
Dem
Rep
MoE
 Spread
AK-AL
R+14		 Ethan Berkowitz (D)
$96,004
 ValuesTidesDon Young May Think It's Funny
Don Young (R-Inc.)
$367,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$106,270
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$586,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4 pts
917-21

 FDU Public Mind Berkowitz 47
Young 41
 4.0 +6
9/15-17
 Research 2000 Berkowitz 53
Young 39
 4.0 +14
8/30-9/2
 Ivan Moore Research Berkowitz 54
Young 37
 4.4 +17
8/9-12
 Ivan Moore Research Berkowitz 51
Young 41
 4.4 +10
7/18-22
 Ivan Moore Research Berkowitz 52
Young 37
 4.4 +15
7/14-16
 Research 2000 Berkowitz 51
Young 40
 4.0 +11
5/12-14
 Research 2000 Berkowitz 50
Young 40
 4.0 +10
5/6-10
 Hellenthal Berkowitz 58
Young 38
 6.0 +10
AL-02
R+13 		Bobby Bright (D)
$281,000
 Never ForgetTruckClean CampaignMy FamilyPledgeHe Won't Stand Up for UsSetting the Record Straight
Jay Love (R) – (Inc.: Everett)
$91,000
 Love StoryBorder is BrokenChangeAgendaLiberal TaxesBroken RecordDifferences (Palin)Teams Matter
IE: DCCC (D)
$59,581
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$598,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 10 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$12,000
Polling
IE: NRCC (R)
$338,000
Reserved TV Air Time
8/26-28
 SurveyUSA Bright 39
Love 56
 4.0 -17
8/6-7
 Capital Survey Res. Ctr. Bright 47
Love 37
 4.4 +10
8/3-6
 Anzalone-Liszt (D) Bright 50
Love 40
 4.9 +10
7/21-22
 McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) Bright 39
Love 41
 5.7 -2
10/2-4/07
 Anzalone-Liszt (D) Bright 46
Love 27
 5.0 +19
AL-03
R+4		 Josh Segall (D)
$411,000
 Disappear-Appear
Mike Rogers (R-Inc.)
$1,120,000
8/6-7,11? Capital Survey Res. Ctr. Segall 33
Rogers 54
 5.0 -21
11/16-20 Anzalone Liszt
Segall 26
Rogers 54
 4.9 -28
AL-05
R+6		 Parker Griffith
$352,000
 Kitchen Table IssuesJobsEmpty ChairHealth CareA Lobbyist You Cannot TrustYou Can't Trust
Wayne Parker
$73,000
 The Real Parker GriffithWayne Parker for CongressValues 3
IE: DCCC (D)
$145,486
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$678,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 8 pts
8/19-21
 Capital Survey Research Ctr Griffith 45
Parker 40
 4.4 +5
4/1
 Capital Survey Research Ctr Griffith 48
Parker 32
 4.0 +16
AZ-01
R+2 		Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
$445,000
 MountainTruth34,000 Lobbyists for HayI'll Never Forget
Sydney Hay (R) – (Inc.: Renzi)
$105,000
 Goldwater
IE: DCCC (D)
$269,304
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,700,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.4 pts
Polling Unavailable
AZ-03
R+6		 Bob Lord (D)
$658,000
 VettingDuty
John Shadegg (R-Inc.)
$1,365,000
 Rick EricksonDutyJohn Shadegg
3/26
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Shadegg Vulnerable
AZ-05
R+4 		Harry Mitchell (D-Inc.)
$1,348,000
 War Doesn't Leave YouMismanagement PageantRuben
Dave Schweikert
$244,000
 Our Story
IE: DCCC (D)
$295,997
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,700,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.4 pts
3/9-11
 Bennett, Petts & Nmgtn (D) Mitchell 50
Schweikert 24
 4.9 +26
3/9-11
 Bennett, Petts & Nmgtn (D) Mitchell 49
Knaperek 26
 4.9 +23
AZ-08
R+10 		Gabrielle Giffords (D-Inc)
$2,147,000
 GenerationsOut HereToughHoneaLoves George Bush - Out For Himself
Timothy Bee
$590,000
 AccomplishmentsAgainst Domestic Violence9%
IE: DCCC (D)
$34,836
Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$705,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
6/18-22
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Giffords 59
Bee 35
 4.4 +24
5/15-23
 Arizona Opinion (R) Giffords 47
Bee 40
 4.4 +7
12/3-4/07
 Summit Group Giffords 36
Bee 30
 5.0 +6
CA-04
R+11 		Charlie Brown (D)
$675,000
 Patriotism
Tom McClintock (R) (Inc: Doolittle)
$117,000
 Real ConservativeCharlie Was There
IE: DCCC (D)
$2, 030,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.65 pts (mult. share w/ CA-11)
8/21-24
 Benenson Strategy Grp (D) Brown 43
McClintock 41
 4.4 +2
5/14-15
 Benenson Strategy Grp (D) Brown 42
McClintock 40
 5.0 +2
CA-11
R+3 		Jerry McNerny (D-Inc)
$1,376,000
 Real ConservativeEnergy
Dean Andal (R)
$663,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$106,270
Direct Mail, Web
IE: Realtors PAC (D)
$462,444
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Polling
IE: DCCC (D)
$2, 030,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.65 pts (mult. share w/ CA-04)
Polling Unavailable
CA-50
R+5 		Nick Leibham (D)
$266,000
 Do Nothing
Brian Bilbray (R – Inc)
$528,000
4/24-27
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Liebham 34
Bilbray 52
 4.9 -18
CO-04
R+9 		Betsy Markey (D)
$613,000
 First AdDefenders of WildlifeVote Vets AdChange, Betsy Markey StyleRecord
Marilyn Musgrave (R-Inc)
$1,156,000
 NRCC-Funded AdMillionaire MarkeyBetsy Markey's Scandals
IE: Def. Wildlife PAC (D)
$520,000
Media Buy, Field
IE: Majority Action (D)
$287,500
Media Buy
IE: Vote Vets (D)
$375,000
Media Buy
IE: NRCC (R)
$1,200,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/8-10
 Grove Insight (D) Markey 47
Musgrave 38
 4.9 +9
8/22-24
 SurveyUSA Markey 50
Musgrave 43
 4.0 +7
5/13-15
 Bennett Potts & Nmgtn (D) Markey 43
Musgrave 36
 4.9 +7
CT-04
D+5 		Jim Himes (D)
$1,444,000
 JimmyNo WaitingDream House21 Years
Chris Shays (R-Inc)
$1,698,000
 Hope and Straight Talk
IE: DCCC (D)
$164,383
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Web
IE: Realtors PAC (D)
$234,750
Media Buy, Polling
IE: DCCC (D)
$697,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.2 pts
9/17-18

 Feldman Group (D) Himes 45
Shays 45
 4.4 0
FL-08
R+3		 Alan Grayson (D)
$73,000
 Case Closed
Ric Keller (R-Inc)
$870,000
9/3-6
 Kitchens Group (D) Grayson 44
Keller 40
 4.4 +4
FL-13
R+4 		Christine Jennings (D)
$375,000
 First AdWhere's Vern
Vern Buchanan (R-Inc)
$1,211,000
 BrokenFactory FloorEnergy Plan
8/23-4
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Jennings 30
Buchanan 48
 4.9 -18
7/08
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Jennings 30
Buchanan 44
 4.9 -14
3/5-6
 Public Opin. Strategies (R)
Jennings 37
Buchanan 53
 4.9 -16
FL-16
R+2 		Tim Mahoney (D-Inc)
$1,047,000
 Real ChangeNot Listening to Florida's Middle ClassFights for Us
Tom Rooney (R)
$291,000
 Right Thing
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,500,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 9.4 pts (mult.)
IE: NRCC (R)
$338,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/7-8
 Tarrance Group (R)
Mahoney 48
Rooney 41
 4.4 +7
FL-18
R+4 		Annette Taddeo (D)
$444,000
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Inc)
$1,882,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,400,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.4 pts (mult. share w/ FL-21, FL-25)
6/6-22
 Bendixen & Associates
Taddeo 31
Ros-Lehtinen 58
 5.0 -27
FL-21
R+6 		Raul Martinez (D)
$1,095,000
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Inc)
$1,716,000
 Integrity and Respect
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,400,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.4 pts (mult. share w/ FL-18, FL-25)
8/24-26
 SurveyUSA
Martinez 48
Diaz-Belart 46
 4.0 +2
6/19-22
 Hill Research (R) Martinez 36
Diaz-Belart 48
 4.9 -12
6/6-22
 Bendixen & Associates Martinez 37
Diaz-Belart 41
 5.0 -4
FL-24
R+3 		Suzanne Kosmas (D)
$836,000
 CloseHow
Tom Feeney (R-Inc)
$804,000
 Double SpeakAmericans UnitedAbramoff Apology
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,000,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 3 pts
9/11-14
 Hamilton Camps. (D)
Kosmas 42
Feeney 43
 4.9 -1
7/9-11/07
 Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
Kosmas 23
Feeney 42
 5.0 -19
FL-25
R+4 		Joe Garcia (D)
$790,000
 93%
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Inc)
$1,030,000
 Enron Joe Garcia
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,400,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.4 pts (mult. share w/ FL-18, FL-21)
6/6-22
 Bendixen & Associates Garcia 39
Diaz-Belart 44
 5.0 -5
GA-08
R+8 		Jim Marshall (D-Inc)
$1,372,000
Richard Goddard (R)
$489,000
Polling Unavailable
ID-01
R+19		 Walt Minnick (D)
$444,000
 Tough TimesLessonsGet Results
Bill Sali (R-Inc)
$250,000
 A True Conserative for Idaho
IE: DCCC (D)
$164,383
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Web
IE: DCCC (D)
$349,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4 pts (mult.)
IE: NRCC (R)
$18,500
Polling
IE: NRCC (R)
$509,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/17-18

 Research 2000 Minnick 35
Sali 46
 5.0 -11
9/9-11
 Harstad Strategic Research (D) Minnick 43
Sali 38
 4.9 +5
IL-06
R+3 		Jill Morgenthaler (D)
$231,000
Peter Roskam (R-Inc)
$1,213,000
 Domestic Energy, Lower Prices NowRoskam takes stand against big oil
7/20-22
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Morganthaler 29
Roskam 59
 4.9 -30
IL-10
D+4 		Dan Seals (D)
$1,179,000
 Tonight's MomentJust Say NoIllinois Needs a Change
Mark Kirk (R-Inc)
$2,857,000
 Energy
IE: DCCC (D)
$135,709
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,400,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.3 pts
9/10-11
 McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) Seals 29
Kirk 51
 5.7 -22
6/9
 McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) Seals 32
Kirk 53
 6.0 -21
3/16
 McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) Seals 29
Kirk 50
 6.0 -21
IL-11
R+1 		Debbie Halvorson (D)
$917,000
 EndsDumping on the Middle ClassEvery American
Martin Ozinga (R) (Inc: Weller)
$670,000
 First SpotSecond SpotNot the Change We Need
IE: DCCC (D)
$546,335
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Phones
IE: Emily’s List (D)
$45,971
Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,600,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.2 pts (mult.)
9/17-18

 Public Opinion Strategies (R) Halvorson 38
Ozinga 36
 4.9 +2
9/14-16

 Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) Halvorson 43
Ozinga 35
 4.4 +8
5/18-22
 Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) Halvorson 43
Ozinga 32
 4.4 +11
IL-14
R+5 		Bill Foster (D-Inc)
$443,000
 Get Things Done
Jim Oberweis (R)
$547,000
 Barberrger
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,020,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.4 pts (mult.)
Polling Unavailable
IL-18
R+5 		Colleen Callahan (D)
$155,000
Aaron Schock (R) (Inc: Lahood)
$299,000
8/18-20
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Callahan 27
Schock 56
 4.9 -29
IN-03
R+16 		Michael Montagano (D)
$351,000
 How do you say Mantagano?Fights for Middle Class FamiliesTypical Hoosier Common SenseHe's One of Us
Mark Souder (R-Inc)
$323,000
9/9-10
 Cooper & Secrest (D) Montagano 37
Souder 50
 4.4 -13
IN-09
R+7 		Baron Hill (D-Inc)
$1,160,000
Mike Sodrel (R)
$379,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$39,215
Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,600,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 10.8 pts (mult.)
9/8-10
 SurveyUSA Hill 50
Sodrel 39
 4.1 +11
7/28-30
 SurveyUSA Hill 49
Sodrel 42
 4.2 +7
6/16-18
 SurveyUSA Hill 51
Sodrel 40
 4.1 +11
KY-02
R+13 		David Boswell (D)
$45,000
 A Fighter for KentuckyRound Here
Brett Guthrie (R) (Inc :Lewis)
$661,000
 PumpHeatResponse
IE: DCCC (D)
$840,000
Media Buy
6/27-29
 SurveyUSA Boswell 47
Guthrie 44
 4.3 +3
KY-03
D+2 		John Yarmuth (D-Inc)
$1,002,000
Anne Northup (R)
$819,000
 Northup for Congress
IE: DCCC (D)
$659,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4 pts
9/5-7
 SurveyUSA Yarmuth 53
Northup 45
 3.9 +8
7/18-20
 SurveyUSA Yarmuth 53
Northup 43
 4.0 +10
6/6-8
 SurveyUSA
Yarmuth 57
Northup 40
 3.9 +17
6/4-5 & 6/8
 Voter/Consumer Res. (R)
Yarmuth 51
Northup 43
 5.0 +8
LA-04
R+7 		Paul Carmouche (D)
$282,000
 Tough Enough
Primary: 10/4
IE: DCCC (D)
$714,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 9 pts (mult.)
IE: NRCC (R)
$323,000
Reserved TV Air Time
Polling Unavailable
LA-06
R+7 		Don Cazayoux (D-Inc)
$212,000
 FamilyRight Out TherePlanRisky Social Security Scheme
William Cassidy (R)
$306,000
 Rain
Michael Jackson (I)
$12,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$16,551
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$723,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$474,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/17-21

 Anzalone-Liszt (D) Cazayoux 48
Cassidy 32
Jackson 9
 4.4 +17
LA-07
R+7 		Don Cravins (D)
$186,000
 Our Dad
Charles Boustany (R-Inc)
$681,000
Polling Unavailable
MD-01
R+10 		Frank Kratovil (D)
$454,000
 ProtectStand UpReachStanding Alone Against Healthcare - Not For Us
Andy Harris (R) (Inc: Gilchrest)
$609,000
 Energy SolutionsWorking for FamiliesService
9/9-12
 Grove Insight (D)
Kratovil 36
Harris 36
 4.9 0
7/15
 Finkelstein & Assoc (R)
Kratovil 28
Harris 44
 5.65 -16
4/23-24
 Garin Hart Yang (D) Kratovil 34
Harris 43
 5.0 -9
MI-07
R+2 		Mark Schauer (D)
$929,000
 One2nd AdIf You Use It, He Wants a 23% Tax
Tim Walberg (R-Inc)
$855,000
 No More ExcusesJobs
IE: DCCC (D)
$39,730
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,500,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 10.8 pts (mult.)
Meyers Research (D) Schauer 42
Walberg 36
 4.4 +6
8/19-21
 EPIC-MRA Schauer 40
Walberg 42
 4.9 -2
7/8-9
 National Research (R) Schauer 31
Walberg 47
 5.7 -16
5/8-15
 Meyers Research (D) Schauer 37
Walberg 40
 4.0 -3
MI-09
R+0 		Gary Peters (D)
$1,082,000
 Foot Soldier for BushFirst AdFive Generations
Joe Knollenberg (R-Inc)
$1,891,000
 ValerieSurvivor
IE: DCCC (D)
$79,630
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: Realtors PAC (D)
$257,250
Media Buy, Polling
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,100,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 3.2 pts
8/19-21
 EPIC-MRA Peters 36
Knollenberg 43
 4.9 -7
10/31-11/2/07
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Peters 35
Knollenberg 42
 4.8 -7
MN-02
R+3 		Steve Sarvi (D)
$105,000
 Wrong
John Kline (R-Inc)
$651,000
 Character, Integrity
8/18-20
 Alliance For A Better MN Kline 37
Sarvi 33
 4.9 -4
MN-03
R+1 		Ashwin Madia (D)
$914,000
 RunningPaulsen's Got to GoChange the WayPolitical Animal
Erik Paulson (R) (Inc: Ramstad)
$1,187,000
 Cassie
IE: DCCC (D)
$55,738
Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,400,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$675,000
Reserved TV Air Time
3/11-12
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Madia 40
Paulson 43
 4.9 -3
MN-06
R+5 		El Tinklenberg (D)
$204,000
Michele Bachmann (R-Inc)
$1,441,000
8/19-21
 Alliance For A Better MN Tinklenberg 27
Bachmann 40
 4.9 -13
MO-06
R+5 		Kay Barnes (D)
$962,000
 PatheticCaughtOn Your SideSqueeze
Sam Graves (R-Inc)
$936,000
 San Francisco ValuesSan Francisco Values IIHeritage
IE: DCCC (D)
$26,512
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$798,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5.6 pts (mult.)
IE: NRCC (R)
$430,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/17-18
 SurveyUSA Barnes 42
Graves 51
 4.0 -9
7/30-31
 SurveyUSA Barnes 44
Graves 48
 4.2 -4
5/16-18
 SurveyUSA Barnes 39
Graves 49
 4.3 -10
MO-09
R+7 		Judy Baker
$140,000
 Missouri ValuesRight Here
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) (Inc: Hulshof)
$141,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$941,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 10 pts (mult)
9/17-18

 Research 2000 Baker 40
Luetkemeyer 49
 4.9 -9
9/1-2
 SurveyUSA Baker 38
Luetkemeyer 50
 4.0 -12
5/16-18
 Momentum Analysis (D) Baker 41
Luetkemeyer 39
 4.9 +2
MS-01
R+10 		Travis Childers (D-Inc)
$161,000
 Family Heard
Greg Davis (R)
$54,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,060,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 10 pts (mult.)
9/7-10
 Anzalone-Liszt (D) Childers 51
Davis 39
 4.4 +12
NC-08
R+3 		Larry Kissell (D)
$232,000
 A New VoiceTaking Our Country Back
Robin Hayes (R-Inc)
$1,174,000
 Energy IndependenceWorks for You
IE: DCCC (D)
$252,828
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,600,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 9.25 pts (mult)
IE: NRCC (R)
$720,000
Reserved TV Air Time
8/25-27
 Public Policy Polling Kissell 39
Hayes 44
 3.2 -5
8/4-5
 Public Opinion Strategies Kissell 40
Hayes 50
 4.4 -10
7/2-5
 Public Policy Polling Kissell 36
Hayes 43
 4.2 -7
6/8-14
 Anzalone Liszt (D)
Kissell 45
Hayes 43
 4.0 +2
NC-10
R+15 		Dan Johnson (D)
$219,000
Patrick McHenry (R-Inc)
$411,000
8/12-14
 Tel Opinion Research (R) Johnson 31
McHenry 51
 4.9 -20
6/21-22
 Public Policy Reporting Johnson 38
McHenry 49
 2.9 -11
NE-02
R+9		 Jim Esch (D)
$141,000
Lee Terry (R-Inc)
$616,000
 Energy Commercial 2008Energy Plan
7/27-8/2
 Anzalone Liszt (D)
Esch 38
Terry 47
 4.0 -9
NH-01
R+0 		Carol Shea-Porter (D-Inc)
$675,000
 Everything That's Wrong with WashingtonTax RebatesCaring for Our Veterans
Jeb Bradley (R)
$361,000
 We Need JebVacation
IE: DCCC (D)
$544,879
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$564,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 0.45 pts
9/14-21

 UNH Shea-Porter 42
Bradley 45
 4.2 -3
7/11-20
 UNH Shea-Porter 40
Bradley 46
 6.4 -6
4/25-30
 Granite State Poll Shea-Porter 39
Bradley 45
 6.0 -6
NJ-03
D+3 		John Adler (D)
$1,464,000
 Way Out of Touch with New Jersey
Chris Myers (R) (Inc: Saxton)
$155,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$163,952
Direct Mail, Phones
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,700,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 3.3 pts (mult.)
IE: NRCC (D)
$16,500
Polling
9/8-9
 Anzalone-Lizst (D) Adler 29
Myers 33
5.7 -4
NJ-05
R+4 		Dennis Shulman (D)
$258,000
 Scott Garrett's Shrub Farm
Scott Garrett (R-Inc)
$649,000
9/17-18
 Research 2000 Shulman 34
Garrett 49
4.9 -15
NJ-07
R+1 		Linda Stender (D)
$1,200,000
 No ThanksBlocksShopThe Change We NeedChildBoys
Leonard Lance (R) (Inc: Ferguson)
$81,000
 Meet Leonard LanceBig Spender
IE: DCCC (D)
$402,284
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Phones
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,800,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.4 pts
8/20-25
 Anzalone-Lizst (D) Stender 36
Lance 33
4.4 +3
6/24-25
 National Research (R) Stender 35
Lance 42
 5.6 -7
NM-01
D+2 		Martin Heinrich (D)
$354,000
 IntroductionSingle DayA New DirectionBush's AllyHolding BackToo Much Like Bush
Darren White (R) (Inc: Wilson)
$634,000
 Service
IE: DCCC (D)
$291,726
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,300,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$730,000
Reserved TV Air Time
8/26-28
 SurveyUSA Heinrich 51
White 46
 4.0 +5
7/22-23
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Heinrich 41
White 47
 4.38 -6
6/29-7/2
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Heinrich 47
White 44
 4.4 +3
10/8-9/07
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Heinrich 33
White 51
 4.9 -18
NM-02
R+6 		Harry Teague (D)
$75,000
 PeopleWhat's Good for Ed is Bad for New Mexico
Ed Tinsley (R) (Inc: Pearce)
$112,000
 HUmble Beginnings
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,200,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5.9 pts (mult)
Polling Unavailable
NV-02
R+8 		Jill Derby (D)
$314,000
 Four GenerationsHot Air
Dean Heller (R-Inc)
$984,000
 Liberal Activist
8/18-20
 Research 2000 Derby 42
Heller 47
 5.0 -5
6/14
 Mason Dixon
Derby 39
Heller 53
 6.6 -14
NV-03
D+1 		Dina Titus (D)
$592,000
 DifferenceThe Party is Over
Jon Porter (R-Inc)
$1,277,000
 SolarPensionSelf ServiceWhose Side is She On?
IE: DCCC (D)
$916,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 3 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$15,046
Polling
IE: NRCC (R)
$590,000
Reserved TV Air Time
9/?

 Anzalone Lizst (D)
Titus 47
Porter 36

4.4 +9
9/?

 Glen Borger (R)
Titus 39
Porter 41

4.9 -2
7/23-28
 Anzalone-Liszt (D) Titus 43
Porter 39
 4.4 +4
6/9-11
 Mason Dixon (R) Titus 42
Porter 45
 6.6 -3
NY-13
D+1 		Mike McMahon (D)
$413,000
Robert Straniere (R) (Inc.: Fossella)
$12,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,300,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4 pts
Polling Unavailable
NY-20
R+3 		Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Inc)
$2,377,000
 HomeReliefCareWorkMiddle ClassSolutions
Sandy Treadwell
$1,062,000
 PotentialSmall BusinessKirsten Gillibrand
Polling Unavailable
NY-25
D+3 		Dan Maffei (D)
$962,000
 Sweetland Has it BackwardsMafee PlanStay and FightSweetland Has it BackwardsGas Tank
Dale Sweetland (R) (Inc: Walsh)
$108,000
 Intro
IE: DCCC (D)
$2,700,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 20 pts (mult. share w/ NY-26, NY-29)
4/26-27
 Jeff Stonecash
Maffei 37
Sweetland 36
 4.9 +1
NY-26
D+3 		Alice Kryzan (D)
$95,000
 PrioritiesA Record We Can't Afford
Chris Lee (R) (Inc: Reynolds)
$751,000
 Our Children's FutureAmerican Made Energy
IE: DCCC (D)
$916,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 20 pts (mult. share w/ NY-25, NY-29)
4/26-27
 Brilliant Corners (D)
Kryzan 39
Lee 29

 4.9 +10
NY-29
R+5 		Eric Massa (D)
$534,000
 Two faces of Randy Kuhl
Randy Kuhl (R-Inc)
$572,000
 Demand a VoteSaving CanandaiguaPolitics As Usual
IE: DCCC (D)
$8,576
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$2,700,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 20 pts (mult. share w/ NY-25, NY-26)
1/27-28
 McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) Massa 26
Kuhl 46
 5.7 -20
OH-01
R+1 		Steve Driehaus (D)
$631,000
 Didn't Get the Memo
Steve Chabot (R-Inc)
$1,312,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$125,635
Media Buy
IE: DCCC (D)
$928,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 4.3 pts
IE: NRCC (R)
$575,000
Reserved TV Air Time
6/30-7/2
 Public Opinion Strategies Driehaus 37
Chabot 50
 4.9 -13
OH-02
R+13 		Vic Wulsin (D)
$378,000
 Jean Schmidt - Raising Taxes on Middle-Class FamiliesJean Schmidt - A Reckless Disregard for the Truth
Jean Schmidt (R-Inc)
$393,000
IE: NRCC (R)
$11,000
Polling
6/24-26
 Momentum Analysis (D) Wulsin 33
Schmidt 41
 3.5 -8
5/31-6/2
 American Political Polling Wulsin 30
Schmidt 24
 3.5 +6
3/11-12
 Tarrance Group (R) Wulsin 33
Schmidt 51
 4.9 -18
OH-07
R+6		 Sharen Neuhardt (D)
$108,000
Steve Austria (R) (Inc: Hobson)
$361,000
5/27-6/2
 Cooper & Secrest Associates Neuhardt 35
Austria 41
 4.0 -6
OH-15
R+1 		Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
$1,163,000
 MomHealthcareTrickleRootsDumping on the Middle ClassOn Time and Under Budget
Steve Stivers (R) (Inc: Pryce)
$880,000
 True ExampleMonkey Business
IE: DCCC (D)
$385,491
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Phones
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,200,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
8/2-4
 SurveyUSA Kilroy 47
Stivers 44
 4.2 +3
5/20-22
 Benenson Strategy Grp (D) Kilroy 47
Stivers 37
 4.3 +10
OH-16
R+4 		John Boccieri (D)
$531,000
 Shows Up for Himself, Not For UsFighting for America
J. Kirk Schuring (R) (Inc: Regula)
$349,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$424,936
Media Buy, Direct Mail, Phones
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,300,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
7/8-9
 Tarrance Group (R) Boccieri 34
Schuring 40
 4.9 -6
OR-05
D+1 		Kurt Schrader (D) (Inc: Hooley)
$231,000
 Veterinarian
Mike Erickson (R)
$349,000
 Tax HikerAfford
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,200,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
Polling Unavailable
PA-03
R+2 		Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
$128,000
 The Change We Need
Phil English (R-Inc)
$787,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$197,641
Media Buy
IE: NRCC (R)
$10,575
Polling
IE: NRCC (R)
$828,000
Reserved TV Air Time
7/8-10
 Momentum Analysis (D) Dahlkemper 41
English 40
 4.9 +1
PA-04
R+3 		Jason Altmire (D-Inc)
$1,574,000
 Delivering for Western Pennsylvania
Melissa Hart (R)
$625,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$554,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 3.2 pts
8/17-18
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Altmire 49
Hart 44
 4.9 +5
PA-06
D+2 		Bob Roggio (D)
$260,000
Jim Gerlach (R-Inc)
$762,000
8/19-21
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Roggio 28
Gerlach 57
 4.9 -29
6/21-24
 Benenson Strategy Grp (D)
Roggio 32
Gerlach 49
 4.4 -17
5/20-21
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Roggio 30
Gerlach 56
 4.9 -26
PA-08
D+3 		Patrick Murphy (D-Inc)
$2,238,000
 Comes From60 Second Ad
Tom Manion (R)
$505,000
 If
Polling Unavailable
PA-10
R+8 		Chris Carney (D-Inc)
$1,150,000
 Oil ShockRestore HonorKidsCouponsHe Knows ItAmerica's BestMistakes Happen
Chris Hackett (R)
$267,000
 IE, Blue America, Fight for our FreedomsPlanNew DirectionDebate
IE: DCCC (D)
$9,764
Media Buy
8/23-25
 SurveyUSA Carney 49
Hackett 45
 4.0 +4
8/19-21
 Momentum Analysis (D) Carney 54
Hackett 27
 4.9 +27
12/6-9
 Momentum Analysis (D) Carney 55
Hackett 21
 +34
PA-11
D+5 		Paul Kanjorski (D-Inc)
$2,174,000
 Can't Trust Lou BarlettaBarletta is Scary
Lou Barletta (R)
$322,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$281,503
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: Realtors PAC (D)
$575,032
Media Buy
9/14-15
 Grove Insight (D) Kanjorski 48
Barletta 39
 4.9 +-9
9/9-14
 Center for Opinion Research (F&M Coll) Kanjorski 35
Barletta 44
 4.2 +-9
6/27-29
 Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) Kanjorski 41
Barletta 45
 5.0 -4
3/27-29
 Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) Kanjorski 42
Barletta 47
 4.9 -5
PA-15
D+2 		Sam Bennett (D)
$354,000
 WorkWhat Dent Seems to Want
Charlie Dent (R-Inc)
$687,000
 Broken Promises
Polling Unavailable
TX-07
R+16 		Michael Skelly (D)
$1,050,000
 Keeping FaithOn Top
Joh Culberson (R-Inc)
$550,000
9/7-9
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Skelly 37
Culberson 44
 4.4 -7
4/8
 IVR Polls Skelly 37
Culberson 59
 4.2 -22
12/07
 Greenberg Quinlan Ros (D) Skelly 33
Culberson 52
 -29
TX-22
R+15 		Nick Lampson (D-Inc)
$1,148,000
Pete Olson (R)
$261,000
 Olson for Congress
IE: DCCC (D)
$382,681
Media Buy, Direct Mail
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,100,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.2 pts
Polling Unavailable
VA-02
R+6		 Glenn Nye (D)
$409,000
 Thrill
Thelma Drake (R-Inc)
$682,000
 First Ad
Bennett, Petts & Nrmgtn (D) Nye 40
Drake 45
 4.9 -5
5/6-8
 Bennett, Petts & Nrmgtn (D) Nye 32
Drake 48
 4.9 -16
VA-05
R+6 		Tom Perriello (D)
$520,000
 What's Important 1What's Important 2
Virgil Goode (R-Inc)
$834,000
8/10-12
 SurveyUSA Perriello 30
Goode 64
 3.9 -34
VA-10
R+5		 Judy Feder (D)
$812,000
 28 YearsHistory
Frank Wolf (R-Inc)
$849,000
Polling Unavailable
VA-11
R+1 		Gerry Connolly (D)
$275,000
 Troubling
Keith Fimian (R) (Inc: Davis)
$1,039,000
 Someone
IE: DCCC (D)
$127,501
Direct Mail, Web, Phones
IE: DCCC (D)
$1,300,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 1.8 pts
7/15-16
 McLaughlin & Assoc. Connolly 29
Fimian 25
 5.7 +4
7/10-14
 Lake Research Partners Connolly 52
Fimian 21
 4.4 +31
WA-08
D+2 		Darcy Burner (D)
$1,248,000
 Laura Bush VisitTaking StockHaircut
Dave Reichert (R-Inc)
$916,000
IE: DCCC (D)
$949,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 2.425 pts
7/27-29
 SurveyUSA Burner 44
Reichert 50
 3.8 -6
6/16-17
 SurveyUSA
Burner 45
Reichert 51
 3.8 -6
WI-08
D+0 		Steve Kagen (D-Inc)
$827,000
 Off to a Good StartEnergy IndependenceRememberMore of the Same
John Gard (R)
$651,000
 World TourATMDrilling
IE: DCCC (D)
$475,000
Reserved TV Air Time, 5 pts
9/17-18
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Kagen 46
Gard 45
 4.9 +1
7/8-9
 Public Opin. Strategies (R) Kagen 46
Gard 42
 4.9 +4
WV-02
R+5 		Anne Barth (D)
$353,000
 A New VoiceByrd for Barth
Shelley Moore Capito (R-Inc)
$1,237,000
 Moving Fast
Polling Unavailable
WY-AL
R+19 		Gary Trauner (D)
$702,000
 Second Ad
Cynthia Lummis (R) (Inc: Cubin)
$247,000
5/20-21
 Research 2000 Trauner 44
Lummis 41
 4.0 +3
1/18-21
 Mason-Dixon (R) Trauner 41
Lummis 40
 4.0 +1

Filed under: Uncategorized

4 Responses

  2. annie nominous, on September 5th, 2008 at 3:03 am Said:

    McMahon does not have the Democratic nomination yet. He has a primary opponent in Steve Harrison who was the 2006 nominee. Against a pre-scandal Fossella in 2006, Harrison received a higher percentage of the vote than any district Democrat in a generation.

  3. Tim, on September 9th, 2008 at 2:04 pm Said:

    Hey Just want to point out that in OH-02 there is an independent thats taking about 20% of the votes right now in the polling for that district, so there is a real chance for an Independent.

  4. Bridget Cusick, on September 14th, 2008 at 10:42 pm Said:

    There has been TV in the Sarvi-Kline race. Steve Sarvi launched the first ad of the cycle in MN-02 on the final night of the GOP Convention — see it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYmDRArS1Sk.

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